Her report is divided into three parts:

First, Ms. Xiao reviewed the 2025 crude oil market and argued that the market showed a supply glut pattern that year. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated within the range of $58-$81, with the price shifting downward. This was mainly driven by two factors: the substantial production increase by OPEC+ and the declining demand for traditional energy. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and sanctions intensified short-term price volatility. Global inventories continued to accumulate starting from 2025, with offshore inventories registering a significant increase in particular.

Next, Ms. Xiao pointed out that on the supply side, OPEC+ was in a production increase cycle, while U.S. shale oil production had peaked. On the demand side, growth remained sluggish. Strategic reserve actions and sanctions policies of multiple countries disrupted trade flows. The market would still face supply glut pressure in 2026, but the contraction of OPEC+'s remaining production capacity might limit the room for further output increases.

Finally, Ms. Xiao predicted that crude oil prices would fluctuate between the fundamentals of supply glut and geopolitical risks, with the main Brent crude price range being $60-$70. Early signs of a cyclical bottom had emerged, but it would still take time to move out of this bottom. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes and sudden geopolitical events.