Competition and restructuring – a macroeconomic outlook
——Zhu Bin, Chief Economist and Managing Director of Nanhua Futures, President of Nanhua Research Institute

The core of the report focused on the stagnation of globalization and China-U.S. game. It pointed out that the current process of globalization is slowing down, and China-U.S. competition is concentrated in the field of science and technology, with military support as the underlying foundation. The United States holds an advantage relying on its technological, military, and financial hegemony, while China is actively responding by reducing dependence on the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of export products, and controlling exchange rate appreciation, and is catching up in specific strategies and aspects in the fields of AI and military. The report elaborated that although China's GDP maintains growth, the decline in industrial product prices has dragged down overall prices and corporate profits, and the industry has shown a K-shaped differentiation since 2024; risks in the real estate market have intensified, with limited effects of fiscal and monetary policies, and the transformation of consumption towards the service sector is constrained by youth unemployment. It also mentioned the direction of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the global interest rate cut cycle, as well as external risks and challenges such as the U.S. stock market and geopolitical trade frictions.





