Zhubin, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Nanhua Futures, delivered his report Transition and restart-macroeconomic outlook 

On the one hand, it is the transition in the new period. Mr. Zhu uses data to explain that the fundamental problem of the trend transformation of the market economy lies in the change of population structure from the perspective of enterprise, real estate, population and so on. However, the traditional monetary policy has little effect in artificial regulation, and the cycle of real estate and infrastructure reached its peak in 2021, and then the trend declined. Manufacturing is an investment area strongly supported by the state, and exports are subject to the impact of the overseas economic downturn, while the devaluation of the RMB is expected to enhance China's export competitiveness, but changes in the geographical environment have led to a gradual decline in the ratio of China's exports to the US.

In the face of the crisis and the pressure of economic transformation, the restart of the macro market is particularly important. First of all, there is huge room for improvement in Chinese consumer consumption, which is the stabilizer of the post-industrial economy. The COVID-19 pandemic in the past three years has seriously affected the vitality of China's consumer market. Comparing the performance differences between China and the United States during the epidemic period, Mr. Zhu showed that the consumption willingness of Chinese residents needs to be reversed urgently, and the reason for the difference lies in income expectations and employment situation. In addition, the highlight of the consumer market is that the mobility of people has returned to 19-year levels after the outbreak, and the incentive to trade in consumer durables, but the Chinese government's fiscal spending is still very cautious. The external risk is that real interest rates in the United States rise and the risk premium falls to zero, causing the RMB to deviate from the dollar index and commodities to deviate from internal and external trends.