The past path and future outlook of nylon industry chain
——Zhao Juan, the lead analyst of CCFGroup
The presentation highlighted key developments and trends in the nylon industry chain.
High operating rates and reasonable, slightly low inventory levels across the chain. Prices have shifted from stable fluctuations to a significant decline. Rapid capacity expansions for CPL and PA6, with CPL processing fees at historical lows. Improved profitability in midstream and downstream sectors, along with enhanced predictability for contract raw materials.
Strong export growth and robust domestic demand driven by civilian yarn, engineering plastics, and film applications. Emerging product trends like lightweight outdoor gear, "Shanben Pants," beauty-enhancing apparel, and the growing influence of live-streaming e-commerce replacing traditional sales channels.
Mismatched expansion rates among upstream and downstream segments, with slower growth in raw material capacity but accelerated integration (e.g., PA6 and CPL). Significant capacity expansion for nylon filament from late 2024 to 2026, particularly in Hubei, shifting the production focus away from the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region. Overcapacity risks for FDY, while DTY shows better short-term demand and a more favorable supply-demand balance.