Her report mainly consisted of two key points:

Firstly, the reasonable growth rate of global crude oil production is expected to be between 1.1 and 1.3 million barrels per day by 2025, with non-OECD countries taking the lead, and India becoming the largest contributor to this increase. Global oil product increments are declining, with a structural shift towards chemical raw materials. Oil demand is entering a peak rhythm, anticipated to peak around 2035, with emerging oil-producing countries and established oil producers showing divergent performances. China's crude oil demand is influenced by the development of the electric vehicle market and the substitution effect of LNG heavy trucks for diesel heavy trucks. This year, China has returned to a narrow import-export refining policy. The operating rate of Chinese refineries is gradually being squeezed due to multiple factors, including high main operating rates, profits and quotas, leading to a low willingness to stockpile crude oil.

Secondly, the crude oil market in 2025 is expected to be characterized by significant inventory accumulation, with global capacity beginning to exceed demand. Global refining capacity is shifting from tightness to excess, while the impact of Trump's potential return to power on the oil market is also a point of concern. In the U.S., the costs of shale oil extraction are rising due to inflation and changes in the oil-to-gas extraction ratio. The U.S. has not lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and there are internal production plan divergences within OPEC+. The crude oil market is mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and the production policies of major oil-producing countries, leading to a volatile market trend.