Waiting for opportunities when the economy bottoms again
¡ª¡ªFeng Jie, research director of Galaxy Futures

2016-09-22 09:49:09
Ms. Feng shared her opinion about US's interest rate, Brexit and Chinese economy in the latter half of 2016 as well as investment direction and crude oil market. 

US interest rate may hike once within this year. Among Fed's guidance indexes for monetary policy, employment rate is strong, inflation is expected to see continuous recovery in medium term but process may not be smooth. According to Fed officials, Yellen may adopt a hawk tone in Jackson Hole meeting. In whole August, domestic economy and commodities felt limited pressure from outer environment but if USD Index rebounds in Sep, the pressure may grow stronger. 

Brexit may have limited impact on European economy. European monetary policy may have met an end, monetary policy can not suppress euro exchange rate. The endogenous problem of European economy is a lack of fiscal policy to coordinate with consistent monetary policy and the exogenous problem is slowing population growth. 

Problems that Chinese economy confronted with are commonplace: the transforming real economy bears pressure to maintain stable growth and structural adjustment needs to accelerate. Traditional mainstay industry may feel larger de-capacity pressure, meanwhile supply-side structural reform will keep marching forward, which is still a long way to go. Volatility of international financial market triggers exchange rate risk(RMB devaluation), capital outflow(cause panic to aggravate RMB devaluation). 

Suggested investing strategies: 
1. Focus on leading enterprises that are undergoing supply-side reform 
2. Eye on US dollar and gold 
3. Pay attention to the buy point after bulk commodities fall effectively